Today’s Trucking references data from the 2nd quarter TCP Business Expectations Survey to suggest a more positive direction for the industry. In this survey, half of all carriers reported that they expect volumes to increase. These results finally break a three-year trend of lowered second quarter outlooks. Read the full article here.
July 8, 2013 -
Three-Year Trend of Lowered Volume Expectations Ends
June 25, 2013 -
Richard Mikes Comments on the State of the Trucking Industry in IMTA Quarterly
TCP managing partner Richard Mikes contributed an article to the most recent issue of the Iowa Motor Truck Association‘s quarterly Lifeliner Magazine. In the article, Mikes highlights data from last quarter’s TCP Business Expectations Survey showing increasing, if hesitant, optimism for volume and rate expectations in the industry. Trucking is warming up, but at what pace? For more, click here to download a .pdf of the full article.
June 6, 2013 -
Possibility of a Capacity Shortfall Increasing
An article from fleetowner.com reports that with rates still largely flat, much of the TL segment appears to be stalling on expanding capacity. However, a trucking capacity crunch could still be offset by capacity growth within the private fleet segment. The posting sites comments by TCP partner, Richard Mikes from his recent webinar hosted by Wall Street investment firm, Stifel Nicolaus. To read the full article, click here.
May 2, 2013 -
Richard Mikes Presenting Free Webinar on May 3
TCP Partner Richard Mikes will be presenting a webinar on Friday, May 3 at 11:00am EDT hosted by John Larkin, CFA – Transportation Analyst titled U.S. Truckload Fleet Status: TCP Survey 2013.
Topics to be discussed include:
- Discussion of the results of TCP’s latest industry wide survey of truckload management teams
- Truckload industry supply and demand
- Truckload pricing outlook
- The impact that new/revised federal environmental, safety and security regulations will have on capacity
- CSA compliance changes & costs
- Electronic log use rates
- New engine (2010) fleet experience
- Time for Q&A will be allotted at the end
Dial-In Number(s)
888-267-2848 (Domestic)
973-413-6103 (International)
Passcode: 346981
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Replay
800-332-6854 (Domestic)
973-528-0005 (International)
Passcode: 346981
Questions? Contact Richard Mikes at [email protected].
April 10, 2013 -
More fleets using elogs to lift CSA scores
More fleets are using electronic driver logs (elogs) to improve CSA scores, Transport Topics reports. The article highlights the results from Transport Capital Partners’ recent Business Expectations Survey that found 34.6% of carriers are using elogs on all of their trucks with an additional 68.1% either testing or using elogs on some of their trucks. TCP Partner Richard Mikes says that the federal Compliance, Safety Accountability ratings program is “one of the drivers” behind the increase in electronic log usage.
The article also discusses how elogs represent a “huge opportunity” for carriers to lower the CSA violations. Additionally, these on-board devices allow carriers to monitor speed and other measurable that help improve operations. Read the full article to learn more about the shift towards electronic logs and carriers concerns for CSA scores.
Are you the owner or executive of a trucking company who is interested in contributing to the next Business Expectations Survey? Click here to learn more.
April 4, 2013 -
Mixed Reports from Carriers on 2010 Engines
Carrier feedback on 2010 engine performance is mixed according to TruckingInfo.com. Almost half of the carriers surveyed in Transport Capital Partners’ First Quarter Business Expectations Survey report improved fuel economy, but forty percent state that there has been no change. Nearly 60% of large carriers (more than $25 million in revenue) say fuel economy has improved, compared to only 32% of small carriers. “The differences in these responses may simply represent differences in measurement and tracking,” says Richard Mikes, TCP Partner. “Significantly, very few carriers report lower maintenance costs for the 2010 engines, and the majority of carriers we know say these costs have increased.” Read the full article by clicking here.
April 1, 2013 -
Carriers shift toward electronic logs
FleetOwner reports on the findings from the first quarter 2013 Transport Capital Partners Business Expectations Survey that found that a growing number of carriers have made the switch to electronic logs (elogs). Thirty-five percent of the carriers surveyed are now using elogs and other carriers are strongly considering. The increase in the number of carriers using elogs may be due to a likely federal mandate. While the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration has attempted to mandate the use of electronic onboard recorders (EOBRs) in the past, the implementation of new hours-of-service regulations in July might force a rule to finally pass. TCP Partners Steven Dutro and Richard Mikes were both quoted in the article. Read the full article.
The Second Quarter Business Expectations Survey will launch at the beginning of May. Interested carriers can sign up by clicking here.
March 27, 2013 -
E-Logging, CSA Scores, and Capacity All on the Rise
Citing the Business Expectations Survey, conducted quarterly by Transport Capital Partners, Truckinginfo.com reports that carriers are increasingly installing e-log systems on their fleets. The survey shows that 35% of carriers have implemented e-logging systems on their entire fleet. Just 10% of survey responders report that they have yet to begin implementation.
Another trend from the survey indicates that carriers are making efforts to improve CSA scores, but not without expense. “The cost of compliance, along with decreasing productivity, the corresponding decrease in driver earnings, and the planned tightening of hours-of-service rules are part of the regulatory burden which has both directly and indirectly impacted carriers,” said TCP partner Richard Mikes.
Read the full article at Truckinginfo.com.
March 14, 2013 -
Increasing Rates and Profits Likely, Say Analysts
According to multiple trucking industry researchers, economy conditions point towards an increase in rates and profitability. According to the Business Expectations Survey, conducted quarterly by consulting firm Transport Capital Partners, two-thirds of respondents are “optimistic” that volumes and rates will increase over the next year.
“With the present tight supply of trucks, an increase of just 1% to 2% over forecasted GDP growth could spike rates upwards at any time, which would help to cover costs,” noted TCP partner Richard Mikes.
On the other hand, TCP partner Steven Dutro suggested that the limited availability of drivers and impending HOS rules could damper the benefits of a slowly recovering economy.
Read the full article at FleetOwner.com.
February 18, 2013 -
Reflections from the Stifel Transportation Conference 2013
Richard Mikes of Transport Capital Partners (TCP) recently attended the Annual Stifel Transportation and Logistics Conference held in Key Biscayne, Florida, chaired by John G. Larkin, Managing Director at Stifel. About 40 publicly-held transportation and logistics companies were in attendance, presenting information on their firms and trends affecting the industry to a larger than last year investor group. Here are his observations from the conference.
Truckload Carriers Volumes
The general consensus among the presenting carriers is that volumes began flattening in the last half of 2012 and have not recovered in the seasonally slow first quarter. Retailers remain cautious and inventories are managed tightly. The uncertain economic recovery makes future volumes hard to predict. However, there are bright spots in ag equipment, energy exploration and chemicals with construction showing some life. Dry van business remains slow with the seasonal restocking from clothes to turf supplies/equipment and summer recreational merchandise about to begin.
Efficiency and New Strategies
Companies emphasized ongoing and new initiatives in most areas of operations. Most publicly held truckload carriers are no longer “just truckers” but also offering logistics, transportation management, dedicated carriage, 3PL initiatives, and intermodal options.
Focus included reducing costs, enhancing efficiencies, aerodynamics for equipment, and watching natural gas as a potential game changer. Deeper customer interfaces with cross-selling of the increasingly broader array of services were highlighted by many. Collaborative activities with shippers are gaining efficiencies and other mutual benefits.
Equipment Purchases Cautious by Public Carriers
Publicly held carriers in aggregate have reduced their tractor fleet 20% from pre-recession peak levels and are not gaining tractor count, which is in line with TCP quarterly surveys of both private and public firms showing little fleet addition or interest in expansion. While investors favor “asset light” models, discussions of “someone must own assets” were common. Small fleets, 6 trucks or less, account for 88% of the carriers. Smaller fleets are pressured by aging tractors and tight credit. New tractors have improved miles per gallon (mpg), but at a high capital cost with used trade-in prices flat for the past year.
Rates
Generally, carriers anticipate single digit increases for rates assuming stable capacity and loads “in balance”. However, we may be subject to a freight spike environment pushing them upward. A shipper panel declined to provide much information on rates. The uncertain economy remains the gorilla in the room as an uptick of 3 to 5% in GDP growth will push higher rates.
Drivers the Constraint?
Carriers mentioned driver staffing issues are becoming more critical for the variety of reasons (demographics, lifestyle, wages, and HOS/CSA regs), and are directly now impacting carrier capacity along with a stable fleet base. Driver wages must, and will, increase, but the only question is timing. If construction ramps up this could be sooner rather than later.
Brokers and 3PL Providers
Volumes have recovered and general outlook is for a slow growth environment. The focus appears to be on small to mid-size shippers along with broadening international exposure and competition. Growth rates of 3PL’s were reported at 11.6% over the past 15 years in North America contrasted with 30% in South America and 15% in Asia Pacific markets. Over the same time dedicated carriage grew 7.5% in the US.
Have questions? Contact Richard Mikes at 239-395-2595 or [email protected] for more information or to learn more about the Stifel Transportation Conference 2013.
Interested in learning what other carriers are expecting in the coming months?
Click here to participate in TCP’s First Quarter Business Expectations Survey.
